NYC Mayoral Polling Data for Destination Tomorrow

By Honan Strategy Group | June 11, 2025


To:                Interested Parties

From:           Bradley Honan, Honan Strategy Group

Re:                NYC Mayoral Polling Data for Destination Tomorrow

  1. Background:

In partnership with Destination Tomorrow, a Bronx-based LGBTQ+ non-profit, Honan Strategy Group conducted the first independent poll about the upcoming New York City Democratic Mayoral primary since two key milestones have taken place:

  1. The first Mayoral primary debate.
  2. AOC’s Mayoral endorsement.

Destination Tomorrow is a non-partisan organization who is not endorsing any candidate in the race for Mayor.

  1. Overview:

We polled 975 New York City Democratic voters likely to participate in the upcoming primary election, including a segment of anti-Trump surge voters. In addition, we oversampled another 282 New York City Democrats who identify as LGBTQ+, bringing the total sample size of this poll to 1,257.

The full and complete survey methodology appears at the end of the memo. At a broad level, here is what we have found:

III.       Democratic Primary Race for Mayor:

Former Governor Andrew Cuomo maintains a strong lead in the Democratic primary race for Mayor, winning 38% of the vote, while Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is winning 22% of the vote. City Comptroller Brad Lander is in third place with 12% of the vote, and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams is in 4th place with 10%. Just under 1 in 10 voters (10%) are undecided.

Among the LGBTQ+ audience, the race is essentially tied between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani, with nearly one-quarter still undecided.

Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani directionally leads the race among this segment of voters by 4 points with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Andrew Cuomo, which falls within the margin of error.

The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 6.82% for the LBGTQ+ audience.

Question Text: If the Democratic Primary Election for Mayor of New York City were held today and the candidates were . . . for whom would you vote?

IV. Ranked-Choice Voting Simulation:

Voters were asked to rank their choices for Mayor as a part of performing the RCV simulation. At the end of the simulation, Andrew Cuomo wins 56% of the vote to Mamdani’s 44% in the seventh round of voting.

Question Text: If the Democratic Primary Election for Mayor of New York City were held today and the candidates were . . . for whom would you vote?

V. Importance of Demonstrated Commitment to LBGTQ Issues:

6 in 10 Democratic primary voters say that it is important that the next Mayor of New York City has a demonstrated commitment to LGBTQ issues, as do 79% of LGBTQ+ Democratic primary voters.

Question Text: How important is it to you that the next Mayor of New York City has a demonstrated commitment to LGBTQ issues?

VI. Misc Statistics:

  • 59% of likely Democratic primary voters feel that Black and Brown LGBTQ individuals in NYC face higher levels of stress, trauma, or mental health burdens than other LGBTQ residents.
  • 58% of likely Democratic primary voters feel that LGBTQ New Yorkers who are Black and Brown face challenges which are even more pronounced than white LGBTQ New Yorkers.
  • 53% of likely Democratic primary voters feel that Black and Brown LGBTQ individuals face unique barriers to employment and economic advancement in NYC that white LGBTQ individuals do not.
  • 49% of likely Democratic primary voters believe that LGBTQ New Yorkers face everyday challenges that most NYC residents don’t face.
  • Only 15% of likely Democratic primary voters feel that funding for LGBTQ organizations in NYC is distributed equitably between Black- and Brown-led groups and white-led groups.
  • Only 11% of likely Democratic primary voters feel Black and Brown LGBTQ New Yorkers have equal access to safe and affordable housing.

VII.     Survey Methodology:

Honan Strategy Group’s survey on behalf of Destination Tomorrow was conducted in the following manner based on the parameters outlined below.

  • The poll consisted of a total of 975 New York City Democrats likely to vote in the June primary and an oversample of 282 New York City Democrats who identify as LGBTQ+ and are likely to vote in the June primary.
  • The survey was conducted using a text-to-web methodology, and the dates of interviewing were from June 5th to 9th, 2025.
  • The overall margin of sampling error was = +/-2.76% at the 95% confidence level and higher among subgroups.
  • The survey sampling frame was drawn to reflect the known population characteristics of New York City primary voters across demographics (age, race, gender) and political geography (County/Borough).
  • The sample was comprised of likely Democratic primary voters defined below and included those recently registered to vote who represent potential anti-Trump “surge” voters.

Likely Democratic Primary voters were defined as follows:

  • Democrats who voted in any Democratic primary between 2021 and 2024.

Democratic Anti-Trump “surge” voters were defined as follows:

  • Those who say they will cast a ballot in June mainly due to Trump’s presence in the White House and who otherwise likely would not have cast a ballot in the June 2025 Primary had Kamala Harris been elected President.
  • The voter selection criteria used to define this segment of voters was Democrats who registered to vote after January 1, 2024.