How To Read the 2024 Election Results in New York
As the final tallies have come in, politically curious New Yorkers appear to be left with a puzzle about the 2024 election. On the one hand, Vice President Kamala Harris underperformed President Joe Biden here more than in any other state in the nation. On the other hand, downballot Democrats had solid results ranging from significant pickups in Congress to holding the status quo in a State Legislature where Dems already have large majorities and hold seats in nearly all corners of the state. So what to make of these seemingly conflicting results?
Any reckoning with the election in New York has to start with an incontrovertible fact that never changed in the dozens of polls I saw this year: from the country to the state to even the local level at times, voters felt things were headed in the wrong direction. This is never a great sign when your party controls almost every lever of power in the state.
Voters consistently cited inflation and immigration as top issues as well, neither of which was helpful for Democrats, and negative feelings about these issues never substantially improved. And so Harris’ dramatic underperformance, while shocking, was nevertheless perhaps baked in a long time ago.
So how did downballot Democrats avoid succumbing to the undertow from the top of the ticket? Part of this is admittedly owed to the distribution of votes. Harris’ biggest underperformance came in New York City, and the media market surrounding it, a similar dynamic to 2022 when Kathy Hochul came within 6 points of losing and Congressional Democrats lost multiple seats. This meant many districts where Harris underperformed were still broadly Democratic enough to withstand the negative drag, and for Congress in particular, there were pickup opportunities in districts lost in 2022 that Biden had won comfortably in 2020.
But the truth is many downballot Democratic candidates actually outperformed Harris in tough districts when it mattered most, including in NYC and on Long Island. These campaigns found success in what was otherwise a thorny cycle, but not an impossible one; In short, a cycle when running a smart and effective campaign made all the difference. I think these are the common and most important attributes of Democratic candidates and campaigns that came out on top:
Establishing Trust and Credibility
As I mentioned, voters really didn’t like the way things were going. They worried about affording to live in their community or in New York at all. There was nothing to be gained from pointing to charts showing that actually things are good and getting better, or from overly touting economic policy accomplishments that clearly weren’t being felt in people’s lives.
And so the top task for Democrats was gaining credibility on an issue without having good news to point to. Victorious candidates did this by demonstrating through their own past actions that they could be trusted to fight for people. State Senator-elect Chris Ryan won a tough open seat in Central New York while talking about how he had saved hundreds of local jobs as the leader of his union. He had stood with them and fought in the darkest days of shuttered plants and lost jobs, and this reality of his experience was better than any promise or agenda he could sell. Congressman Tom Suozzi won his Long Island district while Harris lost it, because enough voters believed he’d put improving their lives over partisan politics. State Senators Michelle Hinchey, Lea Webb, Rachel May and Jessica Scarcella-Spanton all represent very different districts, but each drew a direct connection with how they listened to constituents about issues they were facing and then took action to make government work for the people. These candidates situated themselves on the voters’ side, reflecting their worries and at times, their anger, while laying out a positive vision for the future. And voters in turn rewarded them with trust. A campaign that connects with voters must always spring from some actual truth about a candidate’s life and character — and winning candidates are more likely to be those who have fought for their neighbors, communities, and constituents.
Playing Hard to our Strengths
Having established credibility on the most pressing matters of the day, successful Democrats also identified issues that were to their strongest advantage and hammered them home relentlessly. In this election, reproductive rights was by far the most important issue in this vein.
Abortion is not, of course, a clear cut and easy issue. Plenty of people have reservations about when in the course of pregnancy it should be allowed, or believe strongly that it should be allowed but hardly cheer for it as a positive experience for any woman to go through. But the undeniable reality is that a conservative Supreme Court stripped away a right that women had for decades in this country. That most Republican candidates had made anti-abortion statements or accepted endorsements from anti-abortion groups that would expect them to follow through on their policy priorities. And in close races that Democrats won, you can bet voters heard that message loud and clear — and effectively could not make their decision in that race without weighing reproductive rights as a factor.
Actual Coordinated Field Work
Credit where credit is due: New York finally had a coordinated field effort up and down the ticket this year that was well-executed and focused on key areas and constituencies. The day-to-day work of running an organized campaign that targets the right voters, collects the right information, disseminates and reflects the same messaging as paid communications, conducts timely follow up, identifies the best way to reach each individual voter, establishes a GOTV plan, recruits enough shifts to execute it, and uses vetted techniques to ensure voters have a plan to vote and vote all the way down ballot makes a real difference. Not the kind of difference that overcomes the national mood of the electorate, but the kind of difference that close races are won or lost by.
And by building this infrastructure this cycle, New York Democrats have taken a big step in developing the organizational muscle memory that will be required to win other close races in the future.
It may never have been in the cards for Democrats to have a stellar election night this cycle. But by running credible campaigns that were true to our candidates’ character, by driving clear contrasts on our strongest issues, and by putting in the hard work day in and day out on the ground, Democrats showed they can earn voters’ trust to fight to improve their lives. And that’s what this is supposed to be all about.
Spencer Lee is Managing Director of the Parkside Group, where he oversees the firm’s Public Affairs practice.
