Honan Strategy Group Poll of New York City Democratic primary voters January 23rd to January 26th, 2025

By Honan Strategy Group | February 3, 2025


To: Interested Parties

From: Bradley Honan, Honan Strategy Group

Date: February 3, 2025

  1. Background Overview:

Honan Strategy Group interviewed 769 New York City Democratic primary voters for our Democratic Mayoral Barometer Survey. The survey included those voters who said they are likely to vote in the June 2025 Democratic Primary for Mayor. The survey was conducted using a text-to-web survey methodology from January 23rd to January 26th, 2025.

Our poll exclusively included New York City Democratic primary voters with verifiable primary voting history drawn from a voter file and included those who recently registered to vote to represent potential anti-Trump “surge” voters.

  1. Key Thematic Conclusions:

Here are the key themes and conclusions that emerge from our polling data about the current state of the NYC Mayoral race.

While Andrew Cuomo is not a declared candidate, if he were to enter the race, he would have a clear advantage relative to the current field of candidates.

Cuomo Leads the Mayoral Field:

Similar to some of the other recently released public polls, we found that Andrew Cuomo leads the race relative to the current field of candidates if the Democratic primary election were held today. Cuomo gets 35% of the vote, well ahead of the other declared candidates.

Brad Lander comes in second with 10%, followed by Eric Adams and Zohran Mamdani tied at 9%, and Scott Stringer at 8%. Jessica Ramos gets 6% of the vote, and Zellnor Myrie is at 3%. Two in ten (20%) voters are undecided.

In a ranked-choice voting simulation, Cuomo achieves 58% of the vote and would win in the 6th round of voting versus Brad Lander at 17%, Zohran Mamdani at 13%, and Scott Stringer at 12%.

Eric Adams is eliminated as a candidate after the 5th round of ranked-choice voting.

Cuomo and Adams Most Recognized Names:

Scott Stringer and Andrew Cuomo are the candidates who receive the highest favorability ratings (53% and 50%, respectively), followed by Brad Lander (42%).

Eric Adams and Donald Trump lead with the highest unfavorability ratings (83% and 81%, respectively), with Adams edging above Donald Trump on this metric.

Many of the candidates for Mayor have low familiarity levels and are not well known to voters who will cast a ballot in June. This represents a significant challenge for many of the lesser-known candidates in the race.

Cuomo Leads The Field on Issue Battery:

Beyond the ballot test and name recognition and favorability, we evaluated the candidates on an issue battery to understand which candidate voters believe would do the best job addressing a range of issues facing New York City. The issues evaluated include:

  • Clean up government corruption
  • End the migrant crisis
  • Fight crime
  • Improve overall quality of life
  • Make New York City safer
  • Create more affordable housing
  • Fix the MTA
  • Improve schools and education
  • Manage the operations of New York City government
  • Create jobs and grow the economy
  • Take on the Trump Administration
  • Stand up for people like me

The survey found that Andrew Cuomo leads on each of the issues tested relative to the other candidates. Notably, between 19% and 36% don’t know or are unsure which candidate would do the best job addressing the issues tested.

Adams Faces A Steep Uphill Battle:

On a range of metrics, Eric Adams receives failing grades, which will be difficult to overcome.

  • 85% do not believe that Eric Adams should be reelected as Mayor.
  • 81% disapprove of the job that Eric Adams is doing as Mayor, including 60% who say they strongly disapprove of the job he is doing.
  • 66% give NYC government a poor rating for how it is being run today, and another 28% only rate how the government is being run as fair.
  • 64% believe that Eric Adams is too closely tied to Donald Trump.

The Mood of the City is Fearful & Anxious:

Democratic primary voters largely see New York City as heading on the wrong track. The top issues facing the city today are concerns about crime/violence, quality of life issues, and housing affordability.

  • Crime/violence is mentioned as the top issue by 23% of Democratic primary voters
  • Quality of life is mentioned by 22%
  • Housing affordability is mentioned by 19%.

Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters (75%) believe that New York City is heading on the wrong track versus only 12% who believe the city is heading in the right direction.

Moreover, the mood and sentiment of voters is largely negative:

  • 80% agree that they are worried about the present level of crime across New York City.
  • 75% believe that New York City is in a period of crisis.
  • 70% agree that they are fearful and anxious about the future of New York City.
  • Almost half (45%) agree that if things get worse they may be forced to move out of NYC.

Below are more detailed findings based on our survey data.

III.       The Horserace for Mayor:

We asked if the election were held today, for whom would they vote. Andrew Cuomo leads the race with 35% of the vote. Brad Lander comes in second with 10%, followed by Eric Adams and Zohran Mamdani tied at 9%, and Scott Stringer at 8%. Jessica Ramos gets 6% of the vote, and Zellnor Myrie is at 3%. Two in ten voters (20%) are undecided.

Question Text: If the Democratic Primary Election for Mayor of New York City were held today and the candidates were Eric Adams, Michael Blake, Andrew Cuomo, Brad Lander, Zohran Mamdani, Zellnor Myrie, Jessica Ramos, Scott Stringer, Whitney Tilson, and Jim Walden, for whom would you vote?

  1. The Ranked-Choice Vote Simulation:

We ran a ranked-choice voting simulation to understand how the Democratic primary race for Mayor would play out.

Under ranked-choice voting, Andrew Cuomo would win the Democratic primary in the 6th round with 58% of the vote against Brad Lander at 17%, Zohran Mamdani at 13%, and Scott Stringer at 12%.

Eric Adams, with 12% of the vote, is eliminated in the 5th round of ranked-choice voting.

  1. Candidate & Political Actor Favorability:

The survey sought to understand the perceptions of the candidates in terms of their name recognition and their favorability.

Scott Stringer and Andrew Cuomo are the candidates who receive the highest favorability ratings (53% and 50%, respectively), followed by Brad Lander (42%).

Eric Adams and Donald Trump lead with the highest unfavorability ratings (83% and 81%, respectively), with Adams edging above Donald Trump on this metric.

Many of the other candidates in the race have very high unfamiliarity ratings.

Question Text: For each of the following names, please indicate if you are familiar with that person, and if so, whether you have a very favorable view of that person, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of them.

  1. Issue Battery:

Regardless of which candidate they were voting for, we asked voters which candidate they thought would do the best job addressing a range of issues facing New York City. For ease of administration, we shortened the list of candidates tested and eliminated the three candidates who are virtually unknown.

Across the issues tested, Andrew Cuomo has a lead relative to the other candidates. Notably, between 19% and 36% don’t know which candidate would do the best job addressing the issues facing New York City.

Scott Stringer performs relatively well on managing the operations of the New York City government and cleaning up government corruption.

Question Text: Please indicate which of the following candidates for Mayor will do the best job addressing each of the following issues facing New York City.

VII.     Mayor Adams:

The survey also sought to examine attitudes towards Eric Adams and his performance as Mayor. These data points both individually and collectively speak to the steep electoral challenges that Eric Adams will face in his reelection campaign.

  • 85% believe that Adams should not be reelected.
  • 83% have an unfavorable opinion of Mayor Adams.
  • 81% disapprove of the job Adams is doing as Mayor.
  • 64% believe that Adams is too closely tied to Donald Trump.

VIII.    Mood and Sentiment Questions:

Lastly, we sought to understand the mindset of New York City Democratic primary voters with less than 150 days until the June primary. Overall, we found the electorate very much on edge.

  • 75% believe that the city is off on the wrong track.
  • 45% cite either crime and violence (23%) or quality of life (22%) as the leading issues facing the city today, followed by housing affordability (19%), and corruption (8%).
  • 66% rate how city government is being run today as “poor” and another 28% rate it as only “fair”.

On a series of agree/disagree statements:

  • 80% agree they are worried about the current levels of crime.
  • 75% agree that the city is in crisis.
  • 70% report being fearful and anxious about the future of the city.
  • Nearly half (45%) agree that if things get worse, they may be forced to leave NYC.

Question Text: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements.

Survey Methodology:

Honan Strategy Group’s Democratic Mayoral Barometer Survey was conducted in the following manner based on the parameters outlined below.

  • A total of 769 survey interviews were conducted among likely New York City Democratic primary voters.
  • The survey was conducted using a text-to-web methodology, and the dates of interviewing were from January 23rd to January 26th, 2025.
  • The overall margin of sampling error was = +/-3.53% at the 95% confidence level and higher among subgroups.
  • The survey sampling frame was drawn to reflect the known population characteristics of New York City primary voters across demographics (age, race, gender) and political geography (County/Borough).
  • The sample was pulled among likely Democratic primary voters defined below and included those recently registered to vote who represent potential anti-Trump “surge” voters.
  • The survey only included those voters who said they were likely to vote in the June 2025 Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City.
  • Please note that responses may add to +/- 100% due to rounding.

Likely Democratic Primary voters were defined as follows:

  • Democrats who voted in any Democratic primary between 2021 and 2024.

Democratic Anti-Trump “surge” voters were defined as follows:

  • Democrats who registered to vote after January 1, 2024.

About Honan Strategy Group:

Honan Strategy Group is a New York City based Democratic polling, data analytics, and public affairs consulting firm. We have nearly 25 years of experience conducting public opinion research nationally and specifically among New York City voters.

Our firm works with a broad spectrum of clients, from candidates and corporations to unions, trade associations, and nonprofits, to analyze contemporary public opinion to guide strategy and to help clients succeed in a competitive landscape.

Bradley Honan serves as the Co-president of the NY Metro Chapter of the American Association of Political Consultants.