Stefanik withdrawal could have implications for next year’s governor’s race

President Trump’s recent withdrawal of his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik for U.N. ambassador could have implications for next year’s governor’s race.

Trump rescinded his nomination of Stefanik, an upstate Republican, out of fear that her leaving could impact the balance of power in the House, where the GOP currently owns a small majority.

What remains to be seen is how this move will impact the expected gubernatorial run by Rep. Michael Lawler, Stefanik’s Republican Hudson Valley colleague.

Lawler’s own press releases describe him as “one of the most bipartisan members of Congress.” The Hudson Valley representative is also a member of the House’s bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.

It is a resume he is hoping can catapult him to the state’s top job next year. New York has not elected a Republican governor since George Pataki won a third term in 2006. Pataki is also the last GOPer to win statewide.

But Democrats portray Lawler as a MAGA Republican in sheep’s clothing. And while voters would have to decide who is right (or maybe both sides can lay claim to that), there’s no doubt Lawler has been loath to publicly criticize Trump directly, even when the President’s actions may run counter to New York’s interests.

Neither Trump nor anyone from his orbit have publicly discussed whether they want to see Lawler abandon his House seat in favor of an up-hill gubernatorial run. But given the decision on Stefanik and what could be at stake, it’s unlikely they’d want to see an incumbent House member give up his seat.

Certainly, Lawler could argue that he could be an attractive general election candidate who could be even more helpful to the White House as a Republican governor in a red state. But it’s not even certain he could win his own party’s primary. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a close ally of the President, has been mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate–assuming, of course, he wins re-election this November. Blakeman might have more conservative credentials and access to funding to give him a leg up on Lawler. That Blakeman leads the county with the second largest GOP enrollment in the state, and is adjacent to Suffolk County, which has the largest number of registered Republicans, makes him even more formidable.

Trump could theoretically back Blakeman while telling Lawler he could best benefit the state by remaining in Congress. It wouldn’t be the first time the White House involved itself in the internal party gubernatorial politics in New York. The last time was in 2009 when President Barack Obama sent a direct message to then-Gov. David Paterson that he should abandon his run for a full four-year term. Paterson ultimately stepped aside, clearing the way for Andrew Cuomo’s election in 2010.

Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg and a Republican operative, who asked for anonymity, don’t believe Trump will have much pull if Lawler wants to run for governor rather than reelection to the House.

“I don’t think it will be as important to the White House,” said the Republican consultant, who has worked on past gubernatorial campaigns in New York. “Right now it’s all about getting what they need to get done in the next year-and-a-half. No one’s going to tell Mike Lawler he’s got to stay.”

He added that Trump will have less leverage over Lawler than he did with Stefanik, since the President had the power to pull her United Nations nomination.

Greenberg agreed. “They can’t make him run or not run,” he said. “They took away Stefanik’s ability to leave the House.”

He added that the 2026 gubernatorial and House races are “still a long ways away. Many things are going to happen between now and then.”

Time will tell how important the Lawler seat is for Trump and the Republicans keeping control of the House, especially if they feel they can’t hold on to Lawler’s Hudson Valley seat in the midterm elections. Even if the White House doesn’t push Lawler directly, House leadership could implore him to stay. And all it could take to up the pressure is for Trump to publicly throw his backing to Blakeman or another Republican in the primary or question Lawler’s party loyalty by abandoning his House seat for an up-hill gubernatorial run.

Either way, the GOP operative, who has no ties to Blakeman or Lawler, said it could be difficult for Lawler to win a GOP primary given the party’s current hard-right bent. If that is the reality, he said, showing party loyalty by running for reelection to the House could give Lawler the out he needs to save face.

“It could easily be the reason he gives: ‘We need to hold the House. It’s so important that I’m going to stay.’ But it’s not going to be the real reason. The real reason will be, ‘I don’t want to go through a primary. It’s going to be hard and I probably can’t make it. I’d rather take my chances on the House side.’”

Lovett is a former long-time award winning reporter who covered New York politics for three decades, including 25 years at the state Capitol. Lovett worked for such publications as the (New York) Daily News, where he served as Albany bureau chief for nearly 11 years, and the New York Post, for which he was an Albany correspondent for more than eight years.