Democratic Mayoral Primary Barometer Survey

By Honan Strategy Group | April 21, 2025


To:                Interested Parties

From:           Bradley Honan – Honan Strategy Group

Re:                Mayoral Polling Results

Date:            April 18, 2025

Overview:

Honan Strategy Group, in partnership with the 5 New York City Chambers of Commerce (non-partisan organizations, which do not endorse candidates), has conducted 823 survey interviews with Democratic voters likely to vote in the June Democratic Primary election for Mayor.

For this poll, we used the same sampling approach as our prior polling and used a voter file that included a combination of voters with confirmed Democratic Primary voting history, plus a portion of Anti-Trump surge voters.

Here are the key conclusions:

  1. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to lead the race for Mayor, winning 45% of the vote (+4% from our prior poll), and appears to have captured most of the votes that Eric Adams had previously won, before he dropped out of the Democratic Primary.
  2. Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani continues to hold second place, winning 22% of the vote and, like Cuomo, is up 4% since our prior poll. The remaining candidates are each winning less than 10% of the vote, and 14% of voters are now undecided.
  3. While we performed a full Ranked-choice voting simulation exercise, it was not necessary. Cuomo wins 53% of the vote even before the RCV simulation begins. When we perform the full simulation, Cuomo wins the race in the 7th round with 64% to Mamdani’s 36%.

The Mayoral Ballot:

Now that Mayor Eric Adams is no longer running in the Democratic Primary, our survey sought to evaluate the current state of the race. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to lead the race handily and has picked up the support that was previously behind Mayor Eric Adams. Since our last poll, Cuomo’s share of the vote is up 4 points and is up 10 points from our polling in January.

Support for Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani stands at 22%, and has also increased by 4 points since our last poll in March. The other candidates are all struggling to gain traction with each winning less than 10% of the vote.

Ranked-Choice Voting Simulation:

While we performed a Ranked-choice voting simulation, it was largely an academic exercise, as former Governor Andrew Cuomo won over 50% of the vote before the simulation even began. By the end of the voting simulation, Cuomo won 64% of the vote to Mamdani’s 36% of the vote.

Survey Methodology:

Honan Strategy Group’s Democratic Mayoral Barometer Survey was conducted in the following manner based on the parameters outlined below. This is in-line with the methodology used in the 3 previous polls we have conducted on the Democratic Primary for Mayor.

  • A total of 823 survey interviews were conducted among likely New York City Democratic primary voters.
  • The survey was conducted using a text-to-web methodology, and the dates of interviewing were from April 16th to 17th, 2025.
  • The overall margin of sampling error was = +/-3.41% at the 95% confidence level and higher among subgroups.
  • The survey sampling frame was drawn to reflect the known population characteristics of New York City primary voters across demographics (age, race, gender) and political geography (County/Borough).
  • The sample was comprised of likely Democratic primary voters defined below and included those recently registered to vote who represent potential anti-Trump “surge” voters.

Likely Democratic Primary voters were defined as follows:

  • Democrats who voted in any Democratic primary between 2021 and 2024.

Democratic Anti-Trump “surge” voters were defined as follows:

  • Those who say they will cast a ballot in June mainly due to Trump’s presence in the White House and who otherwise likely would not have cast a ballot in the June 2025 Primary had Kamala Harris been elected President.
  • The voter selection criteria used to define this segment of voters was Democrats who registered to vote after January 1, 2024.