New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary
AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race
To view report, click here.
NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.
The analysis, based on a comprehensive review of voter file data for the Manhattan-based district, projects that voters age 50-plus will make up between 65% and 75% of the electorate in the June 23 primary, continuing a long-standing pattern in NY-12 congressional elections. With more than 322,000 active Democratic voters in the district and a crowded field of candidates, the findings make clear that the path to victory runs through older New Yorkers.
While recent elections — particularly last year’s mayoral contest — have drawn increased attention to younger voters, this analysis finds that congressional primaries, and NY-12 in particular, will continue to be driven by an older, more consistent electorate. The report shows that NY-12 congressional primaries consistently draw an older, more reliable voting base and that the district is expected to follow that same pattern in 2026.
“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers.”
The report directly challenges the idea that a surge in younger voters during the 2025 mayoral primary will carry over into this race. Instead, it finds that NY-12 congressional primaries consistently draw an older, more reliable electorate and that the district is expected to follow that same pattern in 2026.
Key Findings from NY-12 Analysis:
- Older voters dominate turnout: In recent NY-12 congressional primaries, voters age 50-plus made up 72–74% of turnout, a pattern expected to continue in 2026.
- Projected 2026 electorate: The June primary is expected to draw 70,000 to 85,000 voters, with 50+ voters comprising the clear majority.
- Massive participation gap: Only 9.7% of voters ages 18–29 in the district have ever voted in a congressional primary, compared to 63.6% of voters age 65+.
- Turnout reality: Voters age 65+ turn out at dramatically higher rates — roughly 15 times higher than voters ages 18–29 in congressional primaries.
The analysis shows that while younger voters may register in large numbers, they are far less likely to participate in lower-salience elections like congressional primaries — particularly in a district like NY-12, where turnout has historically been driven by older voters with a consistent voting history.
“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn’t change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn’t build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn’t match the electorate they’re trying to win.”
The report also highlights that the district’s older electorate is both large and highly engaged. Nearly 94,000 Democratic voters in NY-12 are age 65 and older, representing one of the most reliable voting blocs in the race.
AARP New York emphasized that while voters 50+ are diverse in their views, they share common priorities, including protecting Social Security and Medicare, addressing the rising cost of living and supporting family caregivers.
With early voting expected to account for a significant share of ballots cast, the report notes that older voters have also embraced early voting — further reinforcing their influence over the outcome.
The full analysis, The Power of the 50+ Voter in New York’s 12th Congressional District, can be found here.
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About AARP
AARP is the nation’s largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 120 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation’s largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/español or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.
